ABSTRACT
Purpose@#This study aimed to develop web-based nomograms to precisely predict survival outcomes in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in an endemic area. @*Materials and Methods@#A total of 10,126 patients who underwent radical intensity-modulated radiotherapy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) from 2009 to 2015 were analyzed. We assigned patients into a training cohort (SYSUCC-A, n=6,751) and an internal validation cohort (SYSUCC-B, n=3,375) based on computer-generated random numbers. Patients collected from Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital (WZRCH) between 2012 and 2015 were used as the independent external validation cohort (WZRCH, n=450). Concordance index (C-index) was used to determine predictive accuracy and discriminative ability for the nomogram. The web-based clinicopathologic prediction models for predicting survival were based on Cox regression. @*Results@#The C-indexes for SYSUCC-A, SYSUCC-B, and WZRCH cohorts for the established nomograms to predict 3-year overall survival (OS) was 0.736, 0.715, and 0.691. Additionally, C-indexes to predict 3-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) was 0.717, 0.706, and 0.686, disease-free survival (DFS) was 0.713, 0.697, and 0.656, local relapse-free survival was 0.695, 0.684, and 0.652, and regional relapse-free survival was 0.672, 0.650, and 0.616. The calibration plots showed great agreement between nomogram-predicted 3-year survival outcomes and actual 3-year survival outcomes. Moreover, C-indexes of the nomograms for OS, DMFS, and DFS were significantly superior than TNM stage (p< 0.001 for all). @*Conclusion@#These user-friendly nomograms can precisely predict survival endpoints in patients with non-metastatic NPC. They may serve as a useful tool for providing patient counseling and help physicians to make individual follow-up plans.
ABSTRACT
Purpose@#This study aimed to develop web-based nomograms to precisely predict survival outcomes in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in an endemic area. @*Materials and Methods@#A total of 10,126 patients who underwent radical intensity-modulated radiotherapy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) from 2009 to 2015 were analyzed. We assigned patients into a training cohort (SYSUCC-A, n=6,751) and an internal validation cohort (SYSUCC-B, n=3,375) based on computer-generated random numbers. Patients collected from Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital (WZRCH) between 2012 and 2015 were used as the independent external validation cohort (WZRCH, n=450). Concordance index (C-index) was used to determine predictive accuracy and discriminative ability for the nomogram. The web-based clinicopathologic prediction models for predicting survival were based on Cox regression. @*Results@#The C-indexes for SYSUCC-A, SYSUCC-B, and WZRCH cohorts for the established nomograms to predict 3-year overall survival (OS) was 0.736, 0.715, and 0.691. Additionally, C-indexes to predict 3-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) was 0.717, 0.706, and 0.686, disease-free survival (DFS) was 0.713, 0.697, and 0.656, local relapse-free survival was 0.695, 0.684, and 0.652, and regional relapse-free survival was 0.672, 0.650, and 0.616. The calibration plots showed great agreement between nomogram-predicted 3-year survival outcomes and actual 3-year survival outcomes. Moreover, C-indexes of the nomograms for OS, DMFS, and DFS were significantly superior than TNM stage (p< 0.001 for all). @*Conclusion@#These user-friendly nomograms can precisely predict survival endpoints in patients with non-metastatic NPC. They may serve as a useful tool for providing patient counseling and help physicians to make individual follow-up plans.
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: We aim to examine nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) characteristics and survival outcomes in patients aged 70 years and older in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 2006 to 2013, 126 non-metastatic NPC patients aged ≥ 70 years who were treated with IMRT +/‒ chemotherapy were included. Adult Comorbidity Evaluation 27 (ACE-27) was used to measure patient comorbidities. The overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS)were calculatedwith the Kaplan-Meier method, and differenceswere compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to carry out multivariate analyses. RESULTS: For the entire group, only two patients (1.6%) presented stage I disease, and up to 84.1% patients had stage III-IVB disease. All patients had a comorbidity score of 0 in 24 (19.0%), 1 in 45 (35.7%), 2 in 42 (33.3%), and 3 in 15 (11.9%) patients. The main acute grade during radiotherapy was 3-4 adverse events consisting of mucositis (25.4%), bone marrow suppression (16.7%), and dermatitis (8.7%). After treatment, four patients (3.2%) developed temporal lobe injury. Five-year CSS and OS rates were 67.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58.6% to 77.4%) and 54.0% (95% CI, 45.6% to 63.9%), respectively. Five-year OS was significantly higher for ACE-27 score 0-1 than ACE-27 score 2-3 (72.9% and 39.9%, respectively; p 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest IMRT +/– chemotherapy has a manageable toxicity and provides an acceptable survival in patients aged ≥ 70 years with NPC. ACE-27 score was significantly associated with survival outcomes in this group population.